:Product: 0504RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 May 04 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10W44) produced several low level B-class flares during the past 24 hours. No spots are currently visible in Region 934 (S07W25). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 953. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 05 May. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, on 06-07 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 May 083 Predicted 05 May-07 May 080/080/075 90 Day Mean 04 May 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 005/005-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/25/25 Minor storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05