:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 May 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 953 (S10W44)
produced several low level B-class flares during the past 24 hours. 
No spots are currently visible in Region 934 (S07W25).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 953.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 05 May.  Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active periods, on 06-07 May due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 083
Predicted   05 May-07 May  080/080/075
90 Day Mean        04 May 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  005/005-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05