:Product: 0505RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 May 05 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 953 (S10W57) produced a C4.2/1f flare at 05/1247Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 953. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on 06-07 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Expect predominantly quiet conditions on 08 May. III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 May 081 Predicted 06 May-08 May 080/075/075 90 Day Mean 05 May 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 008/010-008/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01