:Product: 0515RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 May 15 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 956 (N02E48) continues to show rapid development in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. This region produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1537Z and is magnetically classified as a Dso beta-gamma sunspot group. Region 955 (S07W58) underwent slight decay over the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Further development of Region 956 could possibly lead to isolated M-class flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May Class M 20/20/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 May 077 Predicted 16 May-18 May 080/082/083 90 Day Mean 15 May 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01