:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 May 15 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels.  Region 956
(N02E48) continues to show rapid development in sunspot area and
magnetic complexity.  This region produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1537Z
and is magnetically classified as a Dso beta-gamma sunspot group. 
Region 955 (S07W58) underwent slight decay over the past 24 hours. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Further development of Region 956 could
possibly lead to isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    20/20/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 077
Predicted   16 May-18 May  080/082/083
90 Day Mean        15 May 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01