:Product: 0518RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 May 18 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N03E07) continues to display a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, but has not produced any flares during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 600 km/s during the past 12 hours, indicating the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods on 19 May due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 20 - 21 May. III. Event Probabilities 19 May-21 May Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 May 076 Predicted 19 May-21 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 18 May 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 010/020-008/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/25/15 Minor storm 25/15/05 Major-severe storm 15/05/01