:Product: 0519RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 May 19 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N02W06) produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours, the largest of which was a B9 flare at 19/1302Z. A disappearing solar filament was observed from this region starting at 19/1231Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar acitivity is expected to be very low to low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible active periods during local nighttime hours on 20 May. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 21 - 22 May. III. Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 May 075 Predicted 20 May-22 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 May 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 008/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01