:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 May 24 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 956 (S01W74) has
decayed into a plage region without spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storming. 
Extended periods of southward Bz starting on 23 May, combined with
rising solar wind speeds, accounted for the most disturbed periods. 
Solar wind speed increased to approximately 650 km/s during the
summary period due to a recurrent coronal hole rotating into a
geoeffective position.  The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to major storming over the next
three days.  Elevated solar wind speeds due to the geoeffective
coronal hole and transient material from the CME's on 22 and 23 May
should produce storm periods on 25 - 26 May.  Expect mostly
unsettled to active conditions on 27 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 070
Predicted   25 May-27 May  070/070/065
90 Day Mean        24 May 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  028/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/10