:Product: 0601RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jun 01 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. New Region 960 (S06E73) was responsible for two M-class flares during the past 24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 01/0651Z and an M2/Sf event occurred at 01/1459Z. A Tenflare of 100 sfu was associated with the M2 event. This region remains too close to the east solar limb to ascertain a complete magnetic analysis. Region 958 (S13E22) developed several sunspots during the period and is now classified a Bxo beta magnetic sunspot group. Region 959 (S12E49) contains two small umbra and was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 960 is likely to produce further M-class flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 June. Active conditions are expected on 03 and 04 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/10/10 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Jun 079 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 073 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 003/005-010/015-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/25 Minor storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/30/30 Minor storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/10/10