:Product: 0704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Jul 04 2202 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Solar wind at ACE started
the period at 03/2100 UTC with 438 km/s, increased to a peak of 652
km/s at 04/0931 UTC, and has steadily declined to around 480 km/s at
forecast issue time.  The IMF Bz also experienced minor fluctuations
throughout the period from +/- 7 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 05 July.  Quiet conditions are
expected for 06-07 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 072
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  075/075/070
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01