:Product: 0704RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jul 04 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind at ACE started the period at 03/2100 UTC with 438 km/s, increased to a peak of 652 km/s at 04/0931 UTC, and has steadily declined to around 480 km/s at forecast issue time. The IMF Bz also experienced minor fluctuations throughout the period from +/- 7 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 05 July. Quiet conditions are expected for 06-07 July. III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jul 072 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 075/075/070 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 008/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01