:Product: 0709RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jul 09 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S07E54) has produced two C-class flares and numerous B-class flares. Region 963 grew slowly in size and complexity during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a D-type group with 12 spots and a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 963. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled with a chance for active periods late on day one (10 Jun) continuing through day two (11 Jun) in response to a recurrent coronal hole. Conditions should decline to quiet to unsettled on day three (12 Jun). III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jul 077 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 008/010-015/015-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/30 Minor storm 10/20/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/45/35 Minor storm 15/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/10/10