:Product: 0710RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jul 10 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S06E40) produced 12 C-class flares, the largest of which was a C8.2/Sf at 10/1240Z. The region grew rapidly, approximately doubling in size in the past 24 hours. It is now an E-class, 15 spot region with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low to moderate, with a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 963. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a corotating interaction region beginning approximately 10/1400Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on days one and two (11-12 July) due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are anticipated to return on day three (13 July). III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jul 078 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 015/015-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/10 Minor storm 20/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/35/10 Minor storm 25/20/05 Major-severe storm 10/10/01