:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Jul 11 2202 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 963 (S06E28) produced a
C1 flare at 10/2246Z, as well as several B-class flares during the
past 24 hours.  This region has decayed in both area and complexity
and is now classified as a beta magnetic spot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
963.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions due
to the coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed at ACE
reached a peak of 602 km/s at 11/0726Z and again at 11/1724Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to
be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (12-14 June).  There
is a slight chance for isolated active periods early on day one (12
June) due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 079
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  008/015-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/15/15
Minor storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01