:Product: 0712RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jul 12 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 963 (S05E15). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE has steadily declined to around 485 km/s at forecast issue time. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13-15 July). Isolated active periods are possible on 14-15 July due to a recurrent coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Jul 077 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 014/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 005/008-007/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01