:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Jul 12 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No significant flares
occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
963 (S05E15).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed at
ACE has steadily declined to around 485 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13-15
July).  Isolated active periods are possible on 14-15 July due to a
recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 077
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  005/008-007/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01