:Product: 0717RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jul 17 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 18 July. Expect unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storming on 19 - 20 July as a recurring coronal hole moves into geoeffective position. III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jul 072 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 005/005-008/010-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/25 Minor storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05