:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Jul 17 2202 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No significant activity
has been observed during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  The greater then 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 18 July.  Expect unsettled to active
conditions with a chance for isolated minor storming on 19 - 20 July
as a recurring coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 072
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  005/005-008/010-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05