:Product: 0803RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 03 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred. New Region 966 (S04E74) rotated into view today and is a simple, H-type sunspot group. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (4-5 August). Conditions should be mostly quiet on day 3 (6 August) but an increase to unsettled is possible late in the day due to the onset of a high speed solar wind stream. III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Aug 070 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/25 Minor storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05