:Product: 0804RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 04 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 5 August. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 6 August as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective late in the day. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 7 August. III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Aug 069 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 005/005-008/010-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/30 Minor storm 05/10/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/25/45 Minor storm 05/15/25 Major-severe storm 01/05/15