:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Aug 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No significant flares
were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 5 August.  Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions on 6 August as a recurrent coronal hole becomes
geoeffective late in the day.  Quiet to active conditions are
expected on 7 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 069
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  005/005-008/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/25/45
Minor storm           05/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/15