:Product: 0805RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 05 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field should be initially quiet for the first day (6 August). However, an increase in activity levels to unsettled to active is expected mid-to-late day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled to active levels should predominate on the second day (7 August) with a chance for isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Activity should decrease to generally unsettled levels by the third day (8 August). III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Aug 069 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/015-015/020-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/45/20 Minor storm 10/20/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor storm 15/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/15/10