:Product: 0808RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 08 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06E07) developed in size and complexity, but produced only a B-class flare. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 500 km/s due to a geoeffective coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 August. Expect unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor to major storm periods, on 10 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Conditions should become quiet to unsettled on 11 August as the coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position. III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Aug 069 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 023/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 007/010-015/025-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/20 Minor storm 05/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/40/30 Minor storm 10/30/20 Major-severe storm 05/15/10