:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Aug 08 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 966 (S06E07)
developed in size and complexity, but produced only a B-class flare.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed
remains elevated at approximately 500 km/s due to a geoeffective
coronal hole.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 August.  Expect unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated minor to major storm periods, on 10
August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. 
Conditions should become quiet to unsettled on 11 August as the
coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 069
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  023/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  007/010-015/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/20
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/30
Minor storm           10/30/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/10