:Product: 0809RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 09 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active on 10 August in response to a recurrent coronal hole. Active conditions are anticipated to persist through 11 August; high-latitude minor storm periods are possible. By 12 August, the coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position and conditions are expected to return to quiet. III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Aug 067 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/025-010/015-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/30/15 Minor storm 30/20/05 Major-severe storm 15/10/01