:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Aug 10 2202 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 966 (S06W20)
produced no significant flares during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.  A recurrent
coronal hole became geoeffective at approximately 10/1400Z.  The
solar wind speed at ACE rose from 225 km/s and reached 560 km/s by
forecast time.  The 2 MeV electron flux measured at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active.  Minor storms are possible
at high latitudes.  Unsettled to active conditions are expected to
end during the latter half of 11 August as the recurrent coronal
hole rotates away from a geoeffective position.  Quiet conditions
are anticipated on 12 and 13 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 068
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  010/015-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01