:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Aug 11 2202 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No significant flares
were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.  Solar wind speed
at ACE gradually decreased to approximately 487 km/s at 11/2100Z. 
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 August.  Quiet conditions
are expected on 13 and 14 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 068
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01