:Product: 0813RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 13 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next two days (14 - 15 August). Expect quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for active periods, on 16 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream. III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Aug 068 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 070/070/065 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-005/005-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/35 Minor storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05