:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Aug 13 2202 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No significant activity
was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next two days (14 - 15 August). 
Expect quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for active
periods, on 16 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 068
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  070/070/065
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  005/005-005/005-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05