:Product: 0814RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 14 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next two days (15 - 16 August) as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 17 August. III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Aug 069 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 008/008-010/015-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01