:Product: 0816RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 16 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. There was no activity of note in the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Enhanced solar wind flow from a coronal hole produced occasional unsettled periods. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. A coronal hole currently near disk center will rotate into geoeffective position on 19 August and produce occasional unsettled to active levels. III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Aug 067 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 065/065/065 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/008-005/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01