:Product: 0818RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 18 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new region, rotating into view near S05 on the east limb, produced occasional B-class flares. The remainder of the disk is spotless. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Early indications are that the region rotating into view on the SE limb will have C-class flare potential. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near 380 km/s. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced solar wind flow from a coronal hole may produce occasional unsettled periods over the next few days. III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Aug 068 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 008/012-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01