:Product: 0828RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Aug 28 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 969 (S05W19) is now a beta spot group. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A transient disruption in the solar wind occurred at approximately 0930 UTC. This resulted in one period of minor storming at mid-latitudes and one period of major storming at high-latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 29 August. There is a chance for isolated active periods due to the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The geomagnetic field is expected to abate to quiet for 30 - 31 August. III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Aug 070 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 006/008-004/005-002/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01