:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Sep 01 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 970 (S06W07) was assigned today
and is a small, C-type sunspot group. A filament eruption on the
west limb was observed beginning at about 31/2000Z in Stereo-A EUVI
images and was later seen as a limb CME in the Stereo-A COR1 and
COR2 coronagraphs just after 01/0000Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
isolated active period from 0900-1200Z. Real-time solar wind
measurements at the ACE spacecraft show a slow increase in speed
over the last 24 hours, from initial values around 420 km/s to about
520 km/s by forecast issue time. The increase is consistent with a
high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels from 31/2100-31/2115 but was dropped below 1000 PFU for the
remainder of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (02
September) as the high speed solar wind stream is expected to
continue. Conditions should subside to mostly unsettled for the
second day (03 September), and should be quiet to unsettled by the
third day (04 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 071
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  071/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  013/020-010/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/10/01