:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Sep 02 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. There were only three,
low-level B-class flares during the last 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with some
isolated minor storm periods. The increase in activity corresponds
to a high speed solar wind stream associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole. Real-time solar wind speeds increased up to
600-650 km/s early in the period, and remained at that level
throughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods during
the next 24 hours (03 September) as the current solar wind stream
persists. Conditions should decline to predominantly quiet for the
second and third days (04-05 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 069
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  069/069/069
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  010/015-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/15/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01