:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Sep 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A single low-level
B-class flare was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 05 September.  Expect quiet to active
conditions, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high
latitudes, on 06 September due to a recurrent coronal hole.  Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return on 07
September.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 068
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  005/005-010/015-006/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/15
Minor storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/35/25
Minor storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/10/05