:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Sep 19 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 20 September and mostly
unsettled on 21 September as a recurrent coronal hole becomes
geoeffective.  Conditions are expected to remain unsettled to
active, with a chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes, on
22 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 067
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  067/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/008-008/008-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/35
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/35
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/10