:Product: 0930RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Sep 30 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the last 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. Unsettled to active conditions predominated from the start of the day through 1200Z due to continued effects of a high speed stream. However, a clear downward trend in solar wind speed began at about 0800Z and geomagnetic conditions were quiet from 1200Z through the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (01-02 October), and partway through the third day (03 October). However, an increase to unsettled to active levels is expected around mid-day on 03 October as a small coronal hole will be rotating into geoeffective position at that time. III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Sep 065 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 024/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/008-007/010-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05