:Product: 1001RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Oct 01 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 October. On 03 October, activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. There will also be a chance for brief minor storm periods at high latitudes. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 04 October as the high-speed stream subsides. III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Oct 068 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 068/068/067 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 007/010-012/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/25 Minor storm 01/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/35/30 Minor storm 05/20/15 Major-severe storm 01/10/05