:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Oct 03 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity continued at very low levels.  The
visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The increase in
activity corresponds to a coronal hole high speed stream.  Real-time
solar wind data showed speed gradually increasing over the period to
a maximum of approximately 600 km/s at 03/1555Z.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 October). 
Minor storm periods may occur at high latitudes.  Activity on days
two and three (05 and 06 October) should decline to mostly quiet
levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 067
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/05
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01