:Product: 1003RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Oct 03 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity continued at very low levels. The visible disk remained spotless. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The increase in activity corresponds to a coronal hole high speed stream. Real-time solar wind data showed speed gradually increasing over the period to a maximum of approximately 600 km/s at 03/1555Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 October). Minor storm periods may occur at high latitudes. Activity on days two and three (05 and 06 October) should decline to mostly quiet levels. III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Oct 067 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 010/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/05 Minor storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/10 Minor storm 15/10/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01