:Product: 1004RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Oct 04 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed steam. Earlier on 03 October, minor to major storm levels were observed at high latitudes between 0600-1500Z due to this high speed stream. Real-time solar wind speed at ACE reached a maximum of approximately 600 km/s at 04/0102Z and has gradually decreased to approximately 515 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods early on day one (05 October). Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Oct 067 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 009/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01