:Product: 1021RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Oct 21 2202 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours, and the visible disk remained spotless. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Real-time solar wind observations from ACE show solar wind velocity gradually declined during the past 24 hours to approximately 455 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 22 October. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 23 October. Expect conditions to range from quiet to active levels on 24 October, with a chance for minor storm periods, as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Oct 067 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 005/005-005/008-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/25 Minor storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor storm 05/05/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/10