:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Oct 21 2202 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours, and the visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Real-time solar wind observations
from ACE show solar wind velocity gradually declined during the past
24 hours to approximately 455 km/s at forecast issue time.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 22 October.  Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on 23 October.  Expect conditions to range from quiet to
active levels on 24 October, with a chance for minor storm periods,
as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 067
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  005/005-005/008-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10