:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Nov 16 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 974 was designated
in position N12W04 as spot class BXO, magnetic class beta.  A slow
moving CME was observed on the southwest limb at approximately
16/1100Z.  This CME appears to have originated on the backside of
the Sun and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with one unsettled
period.  Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s due to a
geoeffective recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the forecast period, November 17 - 19.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 071
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  069/069/069
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01