:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Nov 19 2211 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
solar disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  A co-rotating interaction
region was seen at the ACE spacecraft at 19/1715Z elevating solar
wind speeds to approximately 420 km/s.  A sudden impulse (11nT) was
detected at the Boulder magnetometer at 19/1811Z.  At the end of the
forecast period wind speed was approximately 440 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels.  On day one (20
November), expect mostly quiet to unsettled levels.  On days two and
three (21 to 22 November), conditions are expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels, due to a coronal hole high speed stream
moving into a geoeffective position.  Isolated minor storm levels at
middle latitudes, and major storm periods at high latitudes are also
possible on 21 and 22 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 070
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  010/010-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/15