:Product: 1204RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Dec 04 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A slow moving CME was observed on the west limb at approximately 04/0430Z. This CME appears to have originated on the backside of the Sun and is not expected to be geoeffective. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low though there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 977 (S05E26). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the forecast period, 05 - 07 December. III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Dec 074 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01