:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 980 (S06E29)
produced one low level B-class flare during the past 24 hours.  The
region continued to decay and is now classified as a simple Axx
sunspot group.  New Region 981 (N30E22) is classified as a Cso beta
sunspot group.  This region is likely a new solar cycle sunspot
group.  A very faint backsided CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery
at 4/1454Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There remains a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods for
the forecast period (5-7 January).  Isolated minor storm periods are
possible at high latitudes on 7 January.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 079
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  008/008-008/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10