:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 05 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. Region 981 (N29E14) is currently the only
spotted region on the disk but is quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet but after 0600Z became
predominantly unsettled to active with isolated minor storming in
some locations. Real-time solar wind observations showed a marked
increase in velocity, magnetic field and temperature at about
04/2330Z, and then again at 05/0600Z. The signatures are most
consistent with a high-speed stream from a coronal hole, although
there may have been some complicating influence from the interaction
of recent transient activity with the stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next two days
(06-07 January) due to ongoing persistence from the high speed
stream. Activity is expected to subside somewhat on the third day
(08 January) as the stream should be declining at that time.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 080
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  012/015-012/015-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/15
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05