:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 07 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 980 (S06W03) produced a
C1 x-ray flare today at 1527Z. The group appears to be re-emerging
but is still small and simple. An eruptive event was observed near
plage Region 981 (N27W17) at about 0230Z and was associated with a
B1 x-ray event as well as a small CME observed by the COR2
coronagraph on the STEREO-B spacecraft.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (08-10 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active during
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained elevated throughout the
day due to the continuing influence of a high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the first day (08 January). Conditions are expected to
decline to quiet to unsettled for the second day (09 January) and
are expected to be quiet for the third day (10 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 078
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  080/080/075
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  010/010-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01