:Product: 0112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 12 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  The visible solar
disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.  Solar wind
speeds at ACE have steadily increased through the period starting
around 380 km/s at 12/0440Z and ending with speeds of 500 km/s at
forecast time.  The increase in velocity along with the temperature
and density trends observed, is indicative of a coronal hole high
speed stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for 13-15 January, due to continued influence of the high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 076
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan  075/075/070
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  012/015-008/010-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05