:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 14 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind
speed at ACE reached 750 km/s during the period.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels with isolated storm
periods at high latitudes on Days 1 and 2 (15-16 Jan).  The high
speed stream is expected to depart on Day 3 (17 Jan) and activity
levels should diminish to quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 076
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  075/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  014/015-012/012-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01