:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 15 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under the influence of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed at ACE
declined from a peak of approximately 760 km/s to 650 km/s during
the period.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain unsettled on days 1 and 2 (16-17 Jan) under the
waning influence of the coronal hole.  Infrequent, brief periods of
active to minor storm conditions will still be possible at high
latitudes.  Day 3 (18 Jan) should bring a return to quiet
conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 074
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  075/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  014/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01