:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 16 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled under the continued
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind
at ACE peaked at approximately 700 km/s during the period.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day one of the forecast period (17 Jan)
as the influence of the high speed stream wanes.  Isolated active
periods, particularly at high latitudes, are still possible. 
STEREO-B data suggest a downward trend in solar wind speed and
magnetic activity over the next 40 hours, so by days two and three
(18-19 Jan) conditions should return to quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 073
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01