:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 18 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at middle latitudes.  Solar wind speed remains elevated at
greater than 600 km/s due to the continued influence of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the continued possibility of
isolated active periods for 19 January.  The geomagnetic field
should abate to quiet to unsettled for 20 January and then quiet for
21 January as the high speed stream rotates from its geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 071
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01