:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 02 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active
to minor storm levels occurred between 01/2100Z and 02/0600Z,
followed by quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the
period. A high speed stream with wind speeds of approximately 580 to
620 km/s was responsible for the increase in geomagnetic activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on days
1 and 2 (03-04 February) as the high speed stream continues.
Conditions are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled levels on
day 3 (05 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 072
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  012/015-010/015-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/10
Minor storm           25/25/05
Major-severe storm    10/10/01