:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 10 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
increase in activity is attributable to the arrival of a high speed
stream. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 450 km/s to
approximately 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods at high latitudes on day 1 (11 February) due to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to be at quiet
to unsettled levels on days 2 and 3 (12-13 February) as the effects
of the coronal hole high-speed stream wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 073
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  015/015-010/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/40
Minor storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01