:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 11 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to the
continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. 
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of
approximately 760 km/s at 11/0825Z.  At the end of the summary
period wind speed had declined to below 680 km/s.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period (12-14 February).  Isolated periods of active conditions at
middle latitudes and minor storm levels at high latitudes are
possible all three days, due to continued effects of the high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 072
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  012/012-010/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05