:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 13 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, due to continued
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of approximately 690 km/s at
13/1110Z.  By the end of the summary period wind speed had declined
to around 620 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels, with possible isolated
active conditions on all three days (14 - 16 February), due to
continued influence from the coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 071
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  010/012-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05