:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 15 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible solar disk
remains spotless.  A slow-moving CME, apparently from the backside,
was observed on the east limb at approximately 15/0530Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled due to a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed
remains in excess of 600 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods for 16 February.  The geomagnetic field is expected
to abate to quiet for 17 - 18 February as the coronal hole high
speed stream rotates from its geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 070
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01